Newcastle United Suffer Premier League’s Second-Worst European Hangover

 A new study has revealed which Premier League clubs suffer the biggest “European hangover”.

The study, by BetVictor, analysed 341 Premier League games played two to four days after Champions League, Europa League or Conference League fixtures across the five completed seasons from 2021/22 to 2025/26.

Closing odds were used to work out how many points each club was expected to take, before comparing that with their usual market-adjusted league performance.

Second place goes to Newcastle United. Across 17 post-Europe league games, Newcastle averaged 1.24 points per game against 1.55 expected, leaving them 0.24 points per game worse than their usual market-adjusted league performance after playing in Europe.

Crystal Palace take the top spot on the list. Across 13 qualifying league games, Palace averaged just 0.77 points per game after playing in Europe, compared to 1.23 expected from the closing odds. Their final European hangover effect is -0.56 points per game, the biggest decline among the current Premier League clubs analysed.

Palace’s qualifying sample comes entirely from their 2025/26 Conference League campaign, so unlike some clubs on the list it covers one European season.

Tottenham takes the third spot on the list. Across 32 post-Europe league games, Spurs averaged 1.28 points per game against 1.48 expected, with a final hangover effect of -0.12 points per game.

Manchester City ranks in at fourth place, but the difference is tiny. Across 39 post-Europe games, City averaged 2.13 points per game compared to 2.12 expected, with a final hangover effect of just -0.03 points per game.

Fifth place goes to Manchester United. United averaged 1.55 points per game across 31 post-Europe fixtures, compared to 1.61 expected. Their final hangover effect is only -0.01 points per game, effectively no change from their usual market-adjusted league performance.

Interestingly, the rest of the current-club table actually performed better relative to their usual level after Europe. Liverpool and Arsenal are both marginally positive, while Chelsea (+0.16), Aston Villa (+0.18) and Nottingham Forest (+0.29) all improved.

Across all 341 linked Premier League games, clubs averaged 1.66 points per game compared to 1.69 expected. That shortfall of just 0.03 points per match suggests the European hangover is far from a league-wide certainty.

The Premier League clubs suffering the biggest European “hangover”