A fresh calendar brings a familiar challenge for Brighton & Hove Albion: turning decent performances into three points. Burnley arrive at the Amex with a very different target — survival — but the urgency is just as real, especially with the visitors still searching for a run that can pull them away from trouble.
The Seagulls’ last match in any competition ended in a 2–2 draw at West Ham on 30 December, a chaotic night where they twice had to come from behind and still had chances to win it late on. That result neatly captured their league story through December: plenty of the ball, plenty of territory, but not enough clean wins to climb. Fabian Hürzeler’s side have gone through the whole of December without a league victory, leaving them in the mid-table pack and keen to start January with a sharper edge.
Burnley’s most recent outing was a 3–1 defeat at home to Newcastle on 30 December, and it was a painful one. Falling two behind inside the opening minutes left them playing catch-up almost immediately, and while they rallied to make a contest of it, the final goal in stoppage time underlined a recurring theme — the fine margins keep tipping against them. Scott Parker’s side are winless in their last 10 league games, stuck in 19th, and facing the kind of fixture where points have to be found sooner rather than later.
Availability could play a major part. Brighton are managing multiple injuries: Adam Webster and Solly March remain sidelined, while Stefanos Tzimas, Yankuba Minteh and Mats Wieffer have also been on the injury list. Hürzeler has had to rotate and patch holes in wide areas and midfield, which helps explain why some matches have lacked continuity in the final third even when the overall structure has looked sound.
Burnley’s situation is more severe in the middle of the park. Captain Josh Cullen has suffered an ACL injury and is expected to miss a prolonged period, a significant blow on and off the pitch. There are further concerns too, with Jordan Beyer, Zeki Amdouni, Connor Roberts, Joe Worrall and Maxime Estève all flagged with issues, limiting options in defence and reducing flexibility if Parker needs to change shape during the game.
In terms of players carrying form, Brighton will again look to Danny Welbeck to lead the line and set the tone. He has been productive this season and remains a reliable reference point for how they press and build attacks, while Kaoru Mitoma provides the spark that can turn pressure into clear chances when he’s fit enough for meaningful minutes. Georginio Rutter has also been one of their most dangerous ball-carriers in the final third, and Brighton tend to look far more threatening when he’s able to receive between the lines and drive at defenders.
For Burnley, goals have been harder to come by, but there are still individuals capable of deciding moments. Zian Flemming remains their most dependable attacking contributor, often the one arriving in the right areas when chances finally appear. Josh Laurent, who scored in the Newcastle defeat, has offered energy and running from midfield, and Burnley will need that kind of output again if they’re to disrupt Brighton’s rhythm and compete for second balls.
The tactical picture feels fairly clear without being predictable. Brighton will want to dominate possession and pin Burnley deep, using width, overlaps and quick combinations to create repeated entries into the box. The visitors’ best route is staying compact, surviving early pressure, and making their limited opportunities count — particularly from set pieces and transitions, where one good delivery can change the mood of a match.
For the home side, the challenge is keeping patience without losing intensity. For the away side, it’s about staying alive in the contest long enough for the game to tighten. If the Amex crowd sense Brighton are on the verge of turning control into a win, it can become a long afternoon for the team defending. If Burnley can keep it level into the later stages, the pressure starts to shift — and that’s the window they’ll be desperate to exploit.
