Manchester City will equal Liverpool’s record and win their 10th EFL Cup title this season after being given a favourable quarter-final draw, according to the 2026/27 EFL Cup supercomputer.
The supercomputer, which was conducted by CanadaSportsBetting, following the quarter-final draw, projects that Enzo Maresca’s side will coast to the final before beating Liverpool in a repeat of the 2016 final.
City have been given a home tie against League One side Bradford City – who reached the final of the competition as a fourth-tier side in 2012 – in the last eight of the competition.
Maresca’s side are unsurprisingly projected to ease into the semi-final, with their opposition the least likely of any team to win the competition. Bradford City are given just a 0.5% chance of winning a history-making trophy – half as likely as League Two Fleetwood.
Fleetwood Town made headlines in the fourth round of the tournament after beating Premier League champions Arsenal on penalties, but have just a 25% chance of making it any further. With just a 1% probability of winning the trophy, it is likely that their journey will also end soon.
Elsewhere, Liverpool are the second-likeliest winners following their penalty victory over Chelsea at Anfield. Andoni Iraola’s side are given a 75% chance of getting past Bournemouth in the last eight and a 29% chance of winning the competition.
City, though, are clear favourites as per the supercomputer, winning the competition in 46% of all simulations.
How does the Supercomputer work?
The Supercomputer is a probability model, not determined by human predictions or bias. What happens is the Supercomputer estimates the outcome of each fixture based on a team’s current strength (using factors such as league rankings and Elo team ratings and form) and betting market odds.
The machine simulates the competition 10,000 times and constructs an average from the 10,000 simulations to rule out anomalous results.
